Monday Morning’s Hot Cup of Political Realitea: March 9-13, 2026
- Melissa Reed
- Apr 19
- 9 min read
Last Week’s Fresh Scoop
Budget & Forecast Review: The February forecast projecting a $3.7 billion surplus for FY 2026–27 still dominated discussions. Lawmakers continued to debate how to allocate the additional $1.3 billion in projected revenue while warning that revenue growth remains fragile and federal uncertainty around Medicaid funding could turn the surplus into a deficit. At Monday’s hearing, Minnesota Management & Budget walked the House Ways & Means Committee through the forecast, reinforcing that spending continues to outpace revenue and that the FY 2028–29 balance is only $377 million.
Insurance affordability: The House Commerce Committee considered HF 3388 to extend Minnesota’s reinsurance program beyond 2027. The bill would maintain the reinsurance program, which offsets high‑cost claims and lowered individual premiums by 47% last year, and direct the Department of Commerce to apply for another waiver by December 31, 2026. Supporters said without an extension premiums for 187,000 individual market customers could rise substantially; the bill was laid over.
Protecting child care centers: The Children & Families Finance & Policy Committee heard HF 3415, which would prohibit federal immigration agents from entering a child care facility without a warrant and require staff to request identification and a written statement of purpose. Parents described watching masked agents haul a staff member away during Operation Metro Surge, arguing the bill would safeguard children and families. Republican members said the state cannot regulate federal officers and objected to putting the burden on child care staff; the bill failed on an 11–11 party line vote.
Fraud Prevention: House Fraud Prevention & State Agency Oversight heard a DHS presentation on non‑emergency medical transportation fraud and anti‑fraud measures, highlighting high-risk provider classification, pre‑enrollment risk assessments, enhanced pre‑payment review, and the 71 active investigations. State Government Finance & Policy Committee debated HF 3395, “Fraud Isn’t Free Act,” a bill to punish agency leaders and staff for fraud, failed to advance despite a 7–6 vote per the power sharing agreement under the tied House; supporters argued it would create accountability, while critics warned it would harm due process rights and anti‑fraud capacity, and Minnesota Management and Budget responded
Tech’s Up: The House Commerce Committee heard multiple bills addressing the growing influence of artificial intelligence. HF 2500 would ban health insurers from using AI to deny or prematurely end prior authorization requests. The committee also debated two bills to prohibit “surveillance pricing” — HF 3794 and HF 3408. HF 3794 would outlaw the use of automated decision systems to set individualized prices or wages using personal data and require companies to let consumers see and challenge the data used. The narrower HF 3408 focuses on dynamic pricing in grocery stores; no vote was taken. House leaders have also introduced HF 1991, which would prohibit allowing minors to access recreational chatbots and impose civil penalties; the bill has not yet been scheduled for a hearing.
Senate Judiciary & Public Safety Committee heard SF 3804 — a bipartisan bill Chief Authored by Tax Committee Chair Ann Rest modifying data protection requirements in property tax proceedings. The bill clarifies which income property assessment data remain public or nonpublic, requires courts to issue protective orders before sensitive data can be introduced, and ensures legal discovery cannot be denied on privacy grounds Business groups such as the Greater Minneapolis Building Owners and Managers Association (BOMA) testified that the bill would protect proprietary rent and income data while maintaining transparency and due process. SF 3804 responds to a Minnesota Supreme Court directive to balance accurate assessments, due process and data privacy. The bill was passed to the Tax Committee.
The Senate Tax Committee reviewed the Department of Revenue’s 2026 Property Values and Assessment Practices Report and Presentation. Senators heard that statewide property valuations have remained relatively stable but that some jurisdictions face sharp increases.
At the end of the week, the Senate Commerce and Consumer Protection Committee heard Sen. Dr. Alice Mann’s ‘patient‑first’ package. The committee advanced four bills ensuring coverage – and re‑referred them to Health & Human Services. Sen. Dr. Mann argued that health care decisions should be made by patients and doctors, not insurance companies, and said the bills would improve patient outcomes.
The Senate Jobs and Economic Development Committee received a detailed update from the Department of Employment and Economic Development on the Paid Family and Medical Leave program. DEED officials reported that more than 47,000 leave applications have been received since Jan. 1 – about 45% for bonding, 44% for medical leave and 11% for caregiving – with average leave durations of 8.7 weeks for bonding, 6.6 weeks for medical and 5.9 weeks for caregiving. They noted that premiums of 0.88 % of wages are expected to generate $1.3 billion annually and that implementation costs were nearly $70 million below estimates. Lawmakers also learned about a $5 million annual appropriation to provide grants to small employers and heard that there is little appetite to significantly change the program this year.
Federal & Legal Developments: Oversight hearing: Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison told a U.S. House Oversight Committee on March 4 that the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown has hampered Minnesota’s anti‑fraud efforts. Walz said the state has been singled out for ‘political retribution,’ while Ellison argued that Operation Metro Surge ‘did nothing to address fraud’ and instead harmed the state’s economy and fraud enforcement capacity. The BCA continues to request evidence from the FBI in ICE‑related shootings, and prosecutors announced additional federal indictments stemming from the St. Paul church protest.
What’s Brewing March 9–13
Monday, March 9
House highlights: Committees focus on oversight and modernization. Fraud Prevention & State Agency Oversight receives a program integrity briefing on new data‑matching and periodic reporting requirements. Ways & Means continues budget discussions and receives a modernization overview from the Departments of Human Services, MNIT Services and other agencies. Agriculture Finance & Policy welcomes FFA officers, reviews the AGRI grant and Forever Green programs, and hears the Lender Mediation Act (HF 3692) along with other bills. Elections revisits several election judge proposals, while Health Finance & Policy returns to HF 3668 (Office of Gun Violence Prevention) and ownership transparency measures. Transportation Finance & Policy discusses pedestrian safety pilots, renaming Highway 610 after Speaker Melissa Hortman, security details for legislators, removal of emergency vehicle insignia and standardized identification for emergency responders. House Floor at 3:30
On the Senate side, Judiciary & Public Safety Committee hears Sen. Maye Quade’s Legislative package that would ban AI chatbots and AI-enabled toys for minors, block “nudification” apps that digitally remove clothing from photos and require companies to disclose when users are talking to a bot; these proposals have bipartisan co-authors. SF 1856 mirrors HF 2500 by barring insurers from using AI in utilization review decisions. Senate Democrats have also drafted SF 4233/SF 4199to prohibit surveillance-based price setting and wage discrimination, though those measures have not yet advanced out of the Commerce Committee. Senate Energy, Utilities & Climate Committee names the Community Solar Garden Program for Melissa Hortman and Transportation designates Highway 610 as Hortman Memorial Highway; Commerce and Consumer Protection tackles the new tech of virtual currency kiosks with SF 3868 and SF 3794. Senate Jobs is canceled. Senate Floor at 11:00
Tuesday, March 10
House Capital Investment hears testimony on drinking water and sewer infrastructure costs along with bonding requests from Veterans Affairs, MnDOT, the Pollution Control Agency and other agencies. Judiciary Finance & Civil Law considers bills to strengthen Medicaid fraud enforcement (HF 2354 and HF 3621), create an intelligent speed assistance program (HF 3429) and require warrants for immigration detainers (HF 3483). Tax Committee reviews homestead credit refunds, renter credit expansions, a Hennepin/Ramsey deed tax extension and a property tax task force. Energy & Environment panels take up tribal service exemptions and utility payment plan reforms. Housing and Public Safety committees discuss housing tax credits, eviction protections and proposals to restrict cooperation with federal immigration agents.
Senate Elections takes a swing at Citizens United in SF 4240
Wednesday, March 11
Senate Finance will hear from MMB on the February forecast; Senate Transportation receives the Electricity as Vehicle Fuel Working Group final report ; Labor looks at the “Impact of Generative AI on the Minnesota Job Market.” Taxes hears city’s local option sales tax requests. Capital Investments continues to hear agency requests. Jobs is canceled.
Thursday, March 12
House Capital Investment hears more bonding presentations from multiple state agencies, and hears a debt capacity and cancelation overview from MMB. Jobs receives a presentation on the status of Minnesota’s workforce competitiveness. House Floor at 3:30
Senate Taxes hears local option sales tax requests; Capital Investment reviews bond projects from the Department of Public Safety, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, University of Minnesota and others. Senate Floor at 11:00
Friday, March 13
No major committee hearings are scheduled
The Deets
Fraud Modernization Plans
National Political News
President Trump removed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on March 5, just a day after she faced intense bipartisan criticism in Congress over immigration enforcement. Lawmakers questioned ICE agents’ use of masks during arrests, cuts to officer training, and Noem’s labeling of Minneapolis protesters killed by immigration officers as 'domestic terrorists.' Trump said he would nominate Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin to replace Noem.
The ongoing Department of Homeland Security funding standoff continued. On Feb. 12 the U.S. Senate blocked a bill to fund the agency past a Friday deadline; Democrats demanded oversight reforms amid public outcry after ICE agents killed two Minnesotans, while Republicans argued the bill already addressed some oversight provisions. With funding set to expire, non-essential operations could be halted, though most DHS employees would continue working.
Special Elections: Turnout, Trends and Realitea Leaves
State legislative Democrats have maintained their momentum in special elections. Since early 2025 they have flipped nine GOP-held seats in states including Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and Texas. When combined with Democratic gains in last fall’s off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia, these wins amount to 27 seats flipped from Republican to Democratic control over the last thirteen months. Republicans have yet to flip a single Democratic seat.
Democratic successes have been particularly striking in Virginia, where they converted a 51–49 House majority into a 64–36 supermajority, flipping 13 GOP seats. In New Jersey’s Assembly, Democrats added five seats to their majority. In special elections, Democrats notched additional victories: Mississippi (+3 seats), Iowa (+2), Georgia (+1), Texas (+1), Arkansas (+1) and Pennsylvania (+1), for a total of nine special election flips.
At the federal level, special elections to the 119th Congress have so far preserved partisan control. As of January 2026, six special elections to the U.S. House have occurred and none resulted in a party switch. Upcoming House contests include Georgia’s 14th congressional district on March 10 and New Jersey’s 11th district on April 16, while special Senate elections in Ohio and Florida are scheduled for November.
Figure: State legislative seats flipped from GOP to Democrat in special and off-year elections (approximate counts).
Special elections can be used as an early gauge of partisan enthusiasm. Democrats are currently outperforming their 2024 presidential baseline by about 13 percentage points in special elections held since Election Day 2024, far higher than the 9‑point overperformance ahead of the 2018 midterms and reversing the roughly 4‑point underperformance recorded in the 2022 cycle. This surge suggests Democratic turnout is outpacing Republican engagement in off‑cycle races.
The seat‑flip tally tells a similar story: Democrats have flipped 27 Republican‑held state legislative seats in the past 13 months. When combined with gains in last year’s New Jersey and Virginia off‑year elections, these flips highlight Democrats’ ability to mobilize voters in low‑turnout contests and underscore Republican turnout challenges.
Historically, special election performance has foreshadowed midterm outcomes. Democrats’ 9‑point overperformance in the 2018 cycle preceded a 40‑seat gain in the U.S. House, while a 4‑point underperformance in 2022 presaged midterm losses. If current trends hold, the 2026 midterm environment could resemble 2018 more than 2022, though local factors and future events could still shift the landscape
State Primary Ideological Flavors and Trends
The March 3 primaries in North Carolina, Texas and Arkansas highlight intraparty divisions. In North Carolina, progressive Democrats ousted four moderate incumbents who had supported Republican veto overrides. Republican primary voters also unseated several incumbents, revealing dissatisfaction across ideological lines.
In Texas, the marquee Senate primaries underscore a divide within both parties. Democrat James Talarico defeated fellow progressive Jasmine Crockett 52.8% to 45.9%, while Republican incumbent John Cornyn and Trump‑aligned Attorney General Ken Paxton will head to a runoff after finishing within one percentage point of each other. Down‑ballot races also saw far‑right challengers force runoffs or defeat incumbents, including the upset of U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw by state Rep. Steve Toth in a reconfigured district.
Arkansas primaries were less ideologically charged but still produced notable upsets: Republican Rep. Jeremy Wooldridge defeated Senate Majority Leader Blake Johnson with 62% of the vote in Senate District 21. Few Democratic races featured clear progressive v. moderate divides, though a competitive North Little Rock‑area Senate race will pit Republican Brandon Achor against Democrat Allison Sweatman. Overall, 2026 primaries show progressives gaining strength among Democrats and far‑right candidates challenging GOP incumbents.
Compared with the 2024 cycle, when many moderates survived primary challenges, the 2026 results indicate a shift toward ideological purity. Democratic voters rewarded challengers more closely aligned with the party’s base, while Republican voters ousted several long‑tenured lawmakers in favor of hardline conservatives. This evolution may reshape future legislatures and foreshadow the issues that define the 2026 general election.
Comments