Monday Morning-ish’s Hot Cup of Political Realitea: March 30– April 10, 2026

Melissa Reed
Apr 19
13 min read

No tea last week because we were on a breaaaaak! But just like Ross and Rachel, the Minnesota Legislature was bound to get back together for a final sprint toward omnibus bills and deadlines. While national and local events kept headlines swirling, the political world still served up plenty of drama at Central Perk ☕️

RECESS RUNDOWN: With the first major policy bill deadline hitting on March 27, the Legislature entered its spring recess—officially the Easter/Passover break—from the evening of March 27 until April 7. Lawmakers return to Saint Paul on April 7 to assemble omnibus policy bills, negotiate a supplemental budget and bonding bill, and debate high‑profile tax measures such as restoring the pass‑through‑entity tax election, conforming Minnesota law to recent federal changes and the future of Hennepin County Medical Center, Minnesota’s largest safety-net hospital ravaged by federal cuts. Floor activity will ramp up, but the evenly divided House means controversial proposals will still need bipartisan support.

AG SUES TRUMP: Attorney General Keith Ellison joined 22 other attorneys general and the governor of Pennsylvania in a federal lawsuit challenging President Trump’s March 31 executive order that would create a national voter list. The order directs the U.S. Postal Service to compile lists of “approved mail voters” and requires the Departments of Homeland Security and Social Security to generate proof‑of‑citizenship databases. States that refuse to adopt the federal list would face loss of funding and potential criminal penalties. Ellison and his colleagues call the directive a shocking and unprecedented power grab that usurps state authority to run elections and threatens to upend absentee ballot procedures.

DFL SOUNDS THE ALARM: Minnesota DFL election leaders blasted Trump’s executive order, saying it would create a manipulable national voter database and restrict vote‑by‑mail to those who appear on that list. They warned the scheme could disenfranchise roughly 150,000 Minnesotans who live in small towns that rely on all‑mail elections and would force local officials to upend longstanding voting procedures. The DFL vowed to safeguard Minnesota’s tradition of broad civic participation and high turnout.

DON’T GO BEARS: Republican Rep. Elliott Engen of White Bear Township was arrested shortly

after 1:51 a.m. on March 27 during a traffic stop in White Bear Lake. Police said his truck was

pulled over for speeding, expired tabs and a broken headlight. He took a breath test at the

police station and registered a 0.13 blood‑alcohol concentration — well above the 0.08 legal

limit. Engen, a second‑term lawmaker and candidate for state auditor, faces misdemeanor

charges for fourth degree DWI and DUI. He has apologized, saying he will learn from the

incident.

In the same vehicle was Rep. Walter Hudson, R‑Albertville, a prominent law‑and‑order conservative. He told officers that a bottle of alcohol found in a child’s car seat belonged to him and handed over his 9 mm handgun, producing a permit to carry. White Bear Lake police confiscated the gun for safekeeping but did not administer a sobriety test; without a blood‑alcohol reading above 0.04, prosecutors cannot charge him for carrying a firearm while intoxicated. Hudson later expressed regret over the incident and Speaker Lisa Demuth called the lawmakers’ decisions unacceptable. REPORT

Both Engen and Hudson serve on the House Public Safety Finance & Policy Committee, which is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. The Minnesota House itself is tied 67‑67 — a single vote can derail legislation. DFL leaders are questioning whether the pair left the Education Finance committee early to drink and then returned to vote on late‑night motions that failed 67‑67; House DFL leader Zack Stephenson said he is troubled by the situation and wants answers. Any ethics investigations, suspensions or resignations could upend the committee’s balance and, by extension, public safety legislation on gun safety and law enforcement funding.

The episode underscores the high stakes of a tied Legislature. Democrats hold a one‑seat majority in the Senate and the House is deadlocked. With the 2026 session just resuming, both parties will watch closely whether Engen and Hudson remain on the Public Safety Committee or face discipline, which could tilt control of the panel and delay key bills.

NUCLEAR STUDY BILLS: Bipartisan House and Senate proposals would appropriate funding for an in‑depth study of nuclear power—the first step toward ending Minnesota’s 32‑year ban on new reactors (a moratorium dating to 1994). The bills (HF 4703/SF 4900) envision a report on emerging reactor technologies, waste storage, and long‑term safety that could inform legislation next session. Supporters such as Rep. Spencer Igo argue that Minnesota will need carbon‑free baseload electricity as it retires coal and natural gas plants and electrifies vehicles and homes, warning that “we’re going to need more juice.”

Opponents led by Rep. Larry Kraft counter that new nuclear plants cost billions and take a decade or more to build. Senate Energy Chair Nick Frentz says the study would explore innovations and safety, and the Prairie Island Indian Community backs the effort because it includes analysis of new waste and long‑term storage. Minnesota currently operates three reactors at Prairie Island and Monticello; previous attempts to repeal the moratorium stalled after the Fukushima disaster.

HCMC ON THE BRINK: Hennepin County Medical Center (HCMC), Minnesota’s largest Level 1 trauma center, is in jeopardy. County leaders and hospital executives warn that without legislative action to repurpose the Target Field sales tax or otherwise boost funding, HCMC could close as soon as this year.

As a safety‑net facility, HCMC has posted operating losses in seven of the last eight years and

already shuttered five departments. It continues to operate its trauma center, hyperbaric

chamber and burn center and serves as a training ground for physicians who fan out across rural

Minnesota. But officials say more cuts and fewer beds cannot fix a structural funding gap.

Without help, the closure would send patients to already strained hospitals, lengthen

emergency response times and erode a critical statewide teaching and research resource.

The hospital estimates up to $1.7 billion in losses over the next decade as federal Medicaid cuts

and the pandemic unwind reduce reimbursements. Three‑quarters of its patients are uninsured

or publicly insured, and uncompensated care has risen sharply; a 44 percent surge in unpaid bills

followed the expiration of pandemic Medicaid protections and the collapse of insurer UCare,

which owed HCMC $115 million.

FLORIDA FLIPS: Democrats pulled off their best night in years on March 25, flipping two Florida legislative seats long considered safe for Republicans. In House District 87 along Palm Beach County’s coast—home to Mar‑a‑Lago—Democrat Emily Gregory edged Republican Jon Maples by 2.38 points, capturing a district that GOP incumbent Mike Caruso won by 19 points in 2024, a +22 point swing in the President’s backyard. In Hillsborough County’s Senate District 14, Navy veteran Brian Nathan led former GOP House member Josie Tomkow by roughly half a point as ballots were counted. Analysts attributed the upsets to strong Democratic candidates, low Republican turnout, sky‑high gas and food prices, the unpopular Iran war, and President Trump’s sinking approval. The double flip brings the total number of state legislative seats Democrats have taken from Republicans since Trump’s return to the White House to around 30, and special election gains often foreshadow midterm waves.

TRUMP APPROVAL COLLAPSES: Recent polls paint a grim picture for the president.

Quinnipiac University’s March 19‑23 survey found Trump’s approval among independents at just 25%, with 68% disapproval and independents favoring Democrats 57%–26% on the generic congressional ballot. The poll found 71% of independents think the war with Iran makes the world less safe or make no difference
A University of Massachusetts Amherst poll (March 20‑25) put his overall approval at 33% and flagged double‑digit declines among moderates and independents.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted March 20‑21 found only 36% overall approval, with just 25% approving of his handling of the cost of living and 29% approving of his economic stewardship; about two‑thirds of independents described the economy as weak.
A CNN/SSRS poll released April 4 reported 31% approval on the economy, 36% on foreign affairs and a 27% approval on inflation—the lowest marks of his second term. Poll averages now show Trump’s approval below 40% and sinking, leaving him underwater on every major issue.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT: In October 2024 a Marist/NPR/PBS poll found 51% of Americans held an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump, while 45% viewed him favorably. That left him underwater but competitive going into the 2024 election.

Political scientists emphasize that presidential popularity—not quarterly GDP or inflation—drives midterm outcomes. Brookings research notes that no modern president with approval below 50% a year before the midterm has avoided losing U.S. House seats and that Trump’s approval among key groups like Hispanics and independents sits around 28%.

The Niskanen Center’s review of 80 years of data finds that generic congressional ballot polls and presidential approval explain most of the variation in midterm results, while economic statistics and partisan conflict have little independent effect. Washington Monthly observes that in 2013‑14, Republicans out‑flipped Democrats 10–2 in special elections and went on to gain nine U.S. Senate seats in the 2014 midterms; in 2017‑18 Democrats out‑flipped Republicans 26–7 and won 40 U.S. House seats. With Democrats flipping around 30 state legislative seats this cycle and Republicans none, history suggests the 2026 midterms could bring another wave.

VULNERABLE MINNESOTA SEATS: Several suburban and exurban districts voted for the Harris–Walz presidential ticket yet elected Republicans to the Minnesota House in 2024. These 10 crossover seats are prime Democratic targets in 2026:

District 32A (Blaine–Columbus) –Nolan West (R) won by nearly 16 points, but Harris/Walz edged Trump 48.73%–47.67, showing underlying Democratic strength.
District 33A (White Bear Lake–Mahtomedi) – Patti Anderson (R) took the seat with 58.01%, yet the presidential vote went 53.25% for Harris and 44.57% for Trump.
District 34A (Plymouth–Medicine Lake) – Republican Danny Nadeau won 53.48% to 46.40%, but Harris dominated the presidential ballot 62.26%–34.85.
District 36A (Centennial–Circle Pines) – Elliott Engen (R) prevailed 54.06%, while Harris beat Trump by 16 points (57.18%–40.62).
District 37A (Maple Grove) – Kristin Robbins (R) captured the seat with 57.12%, but Harris carried the district 57.29%–40.15.
District 41B (Coon Rapids–Fridley) – Tom Dippel (R) eked out a 50.94%–48.86% win, even though Harris won the district 60.53%–36.28.
District 45A (Minnetonka–Plymouth) – Andrew Myers (R) secured 55.02%, yet the presidential vote favored Harris 64.37%–33.22.
District 48A (Waconia–Western Carver County) – Jim Nash (R) won comfortably at 60.41%, but Harris topped Trump 53.88%–43.49.
District 57A (Lakeville) – Jon Koznick (R) won 62.55%, but Harris narrowly won the presidential vote 49.76%–47.73.
District 57B (Lakeville–Farmington) – Jeff Witte (R) held the seat with 52.35%, while Harris prevailed 51.96%–45.82.

Minnesota Senate districts where voters backed Harris/Walz but Republicans hold the seat:

Senate District 32 (Blaine–Lino Lakes–Centerville) – Senator Michael Kreun (R) won re‑election with 52.95%, yet House District 32A voted 48.73% for Harris and 47.67% for Trump.
Senate District 33 (White Bear Lake–Stillwater) – Senator Karin Housley (R) won 52.80% in 2022 while House District 33A favored Harris 53.25%–44.57.
Senate District 37 (Maple Grove–Northwest suburbs) – Retiring Senator Warren Limmer (R) retained his seat with 54.88%, but House District 37A went 57.29% for Harris.
Senate District 48 (Western Carver County) – Senator Julia Coleman (R) won 54.34% even though House District 48A supported Harris 53.88%–43.49.
Senate District 57 (Lakeville–Farmington) – Senator Zach Duckworth (R) won 58.61% while House Districts 57A and 57B both backed Harris.

On the flip side, Democrats are defending 2 House seats won by Trump in 2024:

House District 4A – Moorhead/Clay County: DFL Rep. Heather Keeler carried the seat with 58.5%, but Trump won the district’s presidential vote 61.34%–36.56%. The northwestern district leans conservative, so Democrats must mobilize rural and college‑town voters to hold it.
House District 14B – St. Cloud: DFL Rep. Dan Wolgamott edged Republican Sue Ek by fewer than 200 votes (50.36%–49.4%), while Trump narrowly carried the district 49.45%–47.84%. The central Minnesota district has trended Republican in federal races; expect another toss‑up in 2026. Wolgamott’s run for state auditor leaves an open race.

And 3 key DFL Senate seats Trump carried in 2024

Senate District 3 – Iron Range: DFL Sen. Grant Hauschild flipped this Iron Range seat in 2022 by 703 votes, but Trump won the district by 752 votes in 2024. The large, rural district centered on the Iron Range and Duluth will be a top GOP target.
Senate District 4 – Moorhead & Rural Clay County: DFL Sen. Rob Kupec, elected in 2022 by 1,727 votes, represents Moorhead and nearby rural communities. Trump carried the district by 2,902 votes, signaling danger for Democrats.
Senate District 14 – St. Cloud: DFL Sen. Aric Putnam won re‑election in 2022 by 1,381 votes. Trump captured the district by 1,626 votes in 2024, making this seat another prime pickup opportunity for Republicans with Rep. Bernie Perryman (14-A) challenging.

All Minnesota House and Senate seats are on the ballot in 2026. With these crossover House

and Senate districts up for grabs and a surge of retirements, control of the Legislature could

hinge on suburbs that voted blue at the top of the ticket but stuck with down‑ballot

Republicans.

The Hot Goss’ 💅🏼

Caucuses, Conventions and Campaigns, Oh My!

Special election shockwaves have campaign strategists rethinking the 2026 map. Florida’s back‑to‑back flips mark the 29th and 30th state legislative seats Democrats have taken from Republicans since Trump returned to the White House.

Republican leaders chalked the losses up to low turnout and ‘dark‑money’ attacks, but analysts note that high gas prices, the unpopular Iran war and Trump’s falling approval played bigger roles.

Closer to home, Minnesota’s campaign season is heating up despite the legislative recess. With 42 legislators already retiring and all 201 seats on the ballot, both parties are recruiting candidates and bracing for high‑stakes battles.

Legislators return to Saint Paul on Tuesday, April 7. After a week away, they will dive straight into long committee agendas as they assemble omnibus bills and prepare for floor action. Here’s the full week’s schedule by day for the House and Senate:

Tuesday, April 7

House

8:15 AM – Commerce Finance & Policy: HF 4456 (data brokers registration), HF 4544 (AI verification organizations), HF 3698 (library e‑book contracts)
8:15 AM – Human Services Finance & Policy: Presentations on governor’s budgets for Direct Care & Treatment and the Department of Human Services
9:00 AM – State Government Finance & Policy: Review of Office of the Legislative Auditor recommendations and MMB responses
10:15 AM – Capital Investment: Informational hearing on bonding proposals such as zoo upgrades, park facilities, intersection improvements and water projects
10:15 AM – Taxes: Overview of tax proposals to increase child tax credit and create 5^th income tier, and federal conformity
12:15 PM – House Floor Session: House meets in session – paper push
1:00 PM – Education Finance: Special education overview and HF 4114 to repeal contingent reduction in special education aid
1:00 PM – Energy Finance & Policy: HF 4560 (PUC technical changes), HF 4559 (energy research partnerships), HF 2317 (wastewater heat capture pilot), HF 3179 (building performance standards)
1:00 PM – Environment & Natural Resources Finance & Policy: Hearings on PFAS reporting and permitting efficiency
3:00 PM – Housing Finance & Policy: Presentation by Minnesota Housing; informational hearing on SF 2434 (Housing Stability)
3:00 PM – Public Safety Finance & Policy: HF 1082 (victims services funding), HF 2099 (local emergency management program), HF 4177 (independent use‑of‑force investigations unit), HF 2742 (clearance grant program)
5:00 PM – Fraud Prevention & State Agency Oversight: Audits on Behavioral Health Administration grants and alleged kickbacks in Early Intensive Developmental and Behavioral Intervention programs
5:15 PM – Ways and Means: Bills on per diem compensation, dairy assistance, medication repository and penalties for impersonating peace officers
5:30 PM – Legislative Commission on Pensions & Retirement: Review of pension fund reports and benefit changes

Senate

8:30 AM – Health & Human Services: SF 4771 (Helping Paws), SF 4457 (local gov planning for drinking water regionalization)
11:00 AM – Senate Floor Session: The Senate convenes - paper push
12:30 PM – Labor: Presentation on union avoidance activity in Minnesota nursing homes and discussion of reports
3:00 PM – Capital Investment: SF 4420 (Bond‑financed projects: local recreation grants), SF 4571 (greater MN housing infrastructure), SF 4528 (forestry projects), SF 4599 (Agate Housing & Services) and SF 4861 (Red Wing appropriations)
3:00 PM – Environment, Climate & Legacy: Oversight of state actions on PFAS, hydrogen, nitrates, wildlife and waste‑incineration air pollution
3:00 PM – Higher Education: North Star Promise scholarship modifications and University of Minnesota Health Sciences funding

Wednesday, April 8

House

8:15 AM – Workforce, Labor, & Economic Development: HF 4477 (Business recovery loan program) and hearing on impact of ICE occupation on small businesses statewide
10:15 AM – Legacy Finance: Informational hearing on Lessard‑Sams Outdoor Heritage Council’s Roseau Lake Rehabilitation Phase 3 project
10:15 AM – Taxes: HF 1669 (sustainable aviation fuel credit), HF 4709 (Austin Nuclear Plant property‑tax exemption), HF 3531 (delivery fee exemptions for retail fuel), HF 4048 (gross receipts tax modifications for chiropractors)
1:00 PM – Agriculture Finance & Policy: Farm safety, mental health and farm advocates; HF 2103 (ammonia/hydrogen funding) and HF 4508 (elk exemption)
1:00 PM – Transportation Finance & Policy: Greenhouse gas impact assessment for highway projects and presentations on aggregate and ready‑mix supply
3:00 PM – Housing Finance & Policy: HF 3279 (housing sales tax increase), HF 1879 (homeownership education), HF 1417 (manufactured home park grants), HF 2462 (workforce housing) and other tenant protection measures
3:00 PM – Public Safety Finance & Policy: HF 3753 (school safety threat assessments) and other public safety communications and criminal justice reforms

Senate

8:30 AM – Education Finance: SF 3969 (licensing boards reporting provision and grooming criminal offense established.
8:30 AM – Health & Human Services: SF 4706 & SF 4707 (conversion therapy restrictions), SF 1961 (infertility treatment coverage), SF 3299 (community pharmacy reimbursement), SF 4635 (medical‑benefit trust establishment), SF 4672 (mental health law modifications) and SF 4783 (suspension of medical-assistance payments under investigation)
8:30 AM – Taxes: Review of Department of Revenue’s 2026 tax incidence study; SF 4690 (omnibus tax modifications); SF 4787 (advertising services tax)
12:00 PM – Agriculture, Veterans, Broadband & Rural Development: SF 3915 (Wild rice water pesticide protection)
12:30 PM – Energy, Utilities, Environment & Climate: SF 4920 (anaerobic digester/biomass thermal generation planning) and SF 4504 (Minnesota Climate Innovation Finance Authority)
12:30 PM – Judiciary & Public Safety: SF 1131 (massage therapy regulations), SF 3861 (provider enrollment requirements), SF 4255 (emergency managers as an essential service), SF 4205 (support services for young adults leaving incarceration), SF 3599 & SF 3565 (eviction and rent payment modifications) and SF 4104 (landlord maintenance standards)
3:00 PM – Agriculture, Veterans, Broadband & Rural Development – Subcommittee on Veterans: Veterans housing, mental health and farmland property tax proposals
3:00 PM – Human Services: SF 4310 (framework rates reenactment for family residential services), SF 4626 (county cost-share requirements modification for economically distressed counties)
3:00 PM – Transportation: Electric‑assisted bicycle youth‑operation study, SF 3236 (helmets requirement for operators of electric-assisted bicycles under the age of 18) autonomous‑vehicle pilot program, transportation appropriations and school‑bus safety improvements

Thursday, April 9

House

8:15 AM – State Government Finance: HF 4543 (creation of centralized payroll reporting for state prevailing wage projects) and HF 3945 (greenhouse gas cost recovery program) and discussion of the governor’s budget
8:15 AM – Workforce, Labor & Economic Development Finance & Policy: HF 3217 (Payments to bio industrial facilities funding) and HF 2252 (raising volume cap allocations for public facility projects) and DEED presents on 2025 Promise Act grant program.
10:15 AM – Capital Investment: Informational hearing on local bonding proposals from communities across Minnesota
10:15 AM – Taxes: Hennepin County ballpark tax expansion to support HCMC;
1:00 PM – Education Finance: HF 3119 establishing minimum starting salaries for teachers and other omnibus education provisions

Senate

8:30 AM – Education Finance: SF 3625 (Educator licensing and standards provisions modifications), walk thru of governor’s education finance bill
8:30 AM –Human Services: tbd
8:30 AM – Taxes: various local option sales tax bills
12:30 PM – Housing & Homelessness Prevention: State of manufactured housing; SF 4909 (manufactured home relocation trust fund modifications) and SF 1671 (landlords just cause provided for terminating a tenancy requirement)
3:00 PM – Higher Education: SF 4638 (higher education finance omnibus bill)